One-hundred-thirty-four Minnesota House races have campaign signs accenting curbsides across the state.

Both Republicans and Democrats hope to add seats in the House, currently primed at 85 Democrats, 48 Republicans and one Independent Republican — the departing Rep. Mark Olson, R-Big Lake.

House of Representatives Minority Leader Marty Seifert believes the Republicans will have more members in the House come Nov. 5 than they have now.

(Photo by T.W. Budig, ECM Capitol Reporter)

by T.W. Budig
ECM Capitol reporter

One-hundred-thirty-four Minnesota House races have campaign signs accenting curbsides across the state.

Both Republicans and Democrats hope to add seats in the House, currently primed at 85 Democrats, 48 Republicans and one Independent Republican — the departing Rep. Mark Olson, R-Big Lake.

"I think there's a lot of opportunities for pickups,” said House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, DFL-Minneapolis.

"We think we can hold all of our incumbents and believe we will hold our seats where we have open Democratic incumbents,” she said.

Both Kelliher and House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, R-Marshall, both point to open seats as potential pickups.

Specifically, Kelliher points to House District 49B in the northern metro where Rep. Kathy Tingelstad, R-Andover, is leaving the House after six-terms.

Republican Jake Cimenski of Coon Rapids and Democrat Jerry Newton of Coon Rapids are vying for the open seat.

Ozment seat open

Kelliher also points to an open seat in House District 37B in the southern metro where the long-serving Rep. Dennis Ozment, R-Rosemount, is stepping down.

"The Ozment seat with (Democratic challenger) Phil Sterner running is a really great opportunity,” said Kelliher.

Sterner, of Rosemount, is squared off against Republican Judy Lindsay of Rosemount.

Kelliher is less bullish on two other open seats in the northern metro, one in House District 51A where Rep. Scott Kranz, DFL-Blaine, is leaving office after a single term.

Republican Tim Sanders of Blaine and Democrat Shawn Hamilton of Spring Lake Park are vying for the open seat. "I think that is a district that's going to be neck-to-neck to the end,” said Kelliher.

Speaker of the House Margaret Anderson Kelliher points to House District 49B, now held by Republican Kathy Tingelstad, as an area the Democrats could win. (Photo by T.W. Budig, ECM Capitol Reporter)

Another  open seat in House District 16B in the northwest metro where Olson, who was convicted of a domestic assault charge and lost endorsement to former Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer of Big Lake, has Democrat Steve Andrews of Big Lake competing for the district.

While expressing hope, Kelliher spoke of Andrews confronting historical political trends in the district.

Olson has served since 1993.

Kelliher says Democrats are fired up

Kelliher cited a number of reasons why she believes Democrats are in good shape as they door knock their districts. Democrats in general are fired up — record numbers at the caucuses last spring, Kelliher noted.

"Two years ago we were the leading wave of change as far as legislatures were concerned,” she said of the 2006 election in which Democrats took control of the House and thumped Republicans. "And we believe that wave has not crested yet,” said Kelliher.

Democrats as having a solid message of getting things done: "On time, on budget, working hard, in a bipartisan way,” she said. "And I think people very much appreciate that,” said Kelliher.

But Seifert, too, sketches an election that could be kind to his party. "All I'm going to say is that we'll have more (Republican lawmakers) than we have now,” said Seifert.

"A month is a lifetime in a political cycle,” he said, speaking last week.

Pointing to specific races, Seifert downplayed the Newton's chances in District 49B, saying the Democrat has ran for the statehouse before and has been "a perennial loser for the Legislature.”

(Tingelstad notes that a large part of her district is within the 3rd Congressional District and that the open seat race there could impact the district House race.)

Abeler will run strong, says Seifert

Seifert minimizing the aftermath of the transportation finance override vote last session that saw Tingelstad and Rep. Jim Abeler, R-Anoka, taking heat because of their override vote. "Abeler is going to get 60 percent (of the vote) whether he voted for the override or not,” he said.

In terms of possible Republicans upsets, Seifert points to two metro House races.

"I think (representatives) Karla Bigham of Cottage Grove and Mindy Greiling (of Roseville) are the two getting totally outworked, out fund-raised, out (yard) signed — with Greiling it's probably a 100 to one on sign coverage,” said Seifert.

Republicans are excited this election, Seifert opined. "I don't see Republicans sitting on their hands and sitting home like they did two years ago,” he said.

Seifert doesn't dismiss the idea of Democrats picking up seats — anything is possible, he said. "But I just don't think the people of Minnesota want a huge imbalance,” he said.

University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute Political Science Professor Larry Jacobs said that in most election years House Democrats should lose seats because they're holding districts that generally vote Republican — 32 of them are in districts Gov. Tim Pawlenty won in 2006, he noted.

But several factors offering Democrats a rare change of picking up five seats — winning a super majority and being able to override Pawlenty vetoes, Jacobs opined in an email.

Political retributions

He points to the political retributions against the Override Six — the House Republicans who voted to override on the transportation bill — as having Republicans spending time and resources defending what should have been safe House seats.

The federal races, Jacobs opined, could obscure the statehouse races.

More Democrats than Republicans could show up at the polls as a result of enthusiasm and better organization, Jacobs therorized.

And most importantly the unpopularity of President Bush and the general sense that the country is heading in the wrong direction could work to bolster Democrats, he opined.

"(The) focus on economy and other factors are creating general conditions in 2008 that favor Dems and perhaps especially in less visible down-ballot races,” Jacobs opined.