Bachmann could land hard in Iowa
By T.W. Budig
ECM Capitol Reporter
Her heart may be in Iowa, but are the votes?
Sixth District Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, R-Stillwater, may be facing the sharpest setback in her colorful political career in her home state of Iowa.
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann could be facing a poor showing in the Iowa Caucus on Jan. 3. Recent polls have shown the 6th District Republican languishing in the single digits in her native state. (Photo by T.W. Budig)
She is expected to wrap-up her Iowa presidential caucus campaign in her hometown of Waterloo on Tuesday, Jan 3, caucus day in the first-in-the-nation Hawkeye state.
Bachmann, who just four months ago won the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames — a political strength-test that former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty failed — is expected to show poorly on Tuesday, according to recent polls.
A Des Moines Register newspaper poll over the weekend had the congresswoman coming in dead last among the Republican contenders.
The poll showed former Gov. Mitt Romney at 24 percent. Texas congressman Ron Paul at 22 percent, and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum at 16 percent.
Bachmann came in at seven percent in the poll. Other recent polls have shown Bachmann also mired in the single digits in Iowa.
Santorum, a bidder for the same social conservative vote that Bachmann has courted, has been surging in recent days.
Recent days have been less kind to Bachmann.
Bachmann faced the embarrassment of seeing her Iowa campaign chairman defect to the Ron Paul campaign.
Bachmann's husband Marcus steers his wife through the throngs at the Iowa State Fair last summer. (Photo by T.W. Budig)
Media reports have tales of other rumblings within the Bachmann camp.
Hamline University professor and political commentator David Schultz in his blog last week noted that Bachmann in the final days of the her Iowa campaign should have been trying to close the deal with Iowa caucus-goers.
Instead, she was caught up trying to explain a defection.
“Whatever the reason, Bachmann is already a political zombie–walking dead–before Tuesday …,” he said in part.
University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle would be shocked if Bachmann finished first or second place in Iowa.
“At this point, absolutely,” he said, speaking late last week.
Hagle sees several things working against Bachmann.
For one thing, Santorum in recent days has picked up a number of key Iowa social conservative endorsements, he explained.
“It seemed early (in the race) that she had these folks in her pocket,” he said.
Still, though Iowa social conservatives may have favored Bachmann in the past, they kept inspecting the candidates, Hagle said.
And Santorum has been busy campaigning, answering questions, spending time in Iowa, Hagle noted.
Although Bachmann’s and Santorum’s positions on social issues are more or less alike, Republican voters tend to favor candidates with experience, explained Hagle, a Republican activist. They like their governors, he said.
And many Republicans may consider a U.S. Sen like Santorum more seasoned, better equipped to assume the presidency than a member of the House like Bachmann, Hagle explained.
Bachmann’s campaign doesn’t concede the social conservative vote to Santorum by any means.
The campaign on Friday, Dec. 30 in a press release said that more than 200 Iowa “men and women of God” publicly supported her campaign.
“Michele Bachmann is the most principled Christian candidate in the race. Her core convictions are based on biblical truths and she has a
Bachmann reaches out to a supporter at the Iowa State Fair last summer. (Photo by T.W. Budig)
no-compromise record when it comes to public policy,” said Drew Klein, the Bachmann campaign’s faith outreach director.
Bachmann recently finished a 99-county tour of Iowa.
According to her campaign, their “Iron Lady” campaign ad will run on cable and television network stations in Iowa.
Bachmann had a slew of media appearances on Jan. 2.
She has given no indication that a poor Iowa showing might cause her to quit the presidential race.
Bachmann has made missteps on the campaign trail, and suffered some bad luck.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry stepped on her Iowa Straw Poll win by announcing his presidential candidacy within hours of her narrow victory.
Bachmann became tangled in controversy over comments she made concerning a vaccine against sexually transmitted disease she alleged caused mental retardation — she backed the assertion by reporting what she had been told by a tearful mother.
The comments elicited statements from medical associations. Pundits cited them as evidence of erratic, cobbled thinking.
For a time, Bachmann had the “diva” label affixed to her. And even a supportive Iowa Tea Party leader at one point urged her to go back to mixing with Iowans.
Recently in Politico, Bachmann’s former campaign manager Ed Rollins, a longtime Republican strategist and operative, depicted her campaign as unprepared to take advantage of the political momentum when it came her way.
“I think to a certain extent it was a smoke and mirrors operation,” said Rollins. “The debates kept her in it and the end of the day that’s not the substance [of a campaign]. We got her to a point where people looked at her, [but] just as other candidates found out, once the spotlight goes on you, you better be prepared.”
Bachmann has been billing herself as the true conservative among the Republican field, and in a recent Washington Post opt-ed piece painted another distinction. “Of all the Republican candidates in the race, I am the only one with current experience in national security,” she wrote.
“As president, I will ensure America remains free, safe and sovereign – the greatest force for good the world has ever known. And on Day One, I’ll announce that we’re moving our Israeli embassy to Jerusalem, and I’ll attend its opening within the first 100 days. I’ll make sure Iran knows I will not tolerate it obtaining a nuclear weapon and will take whatever action is necessary to prevent that.”
Bachmann vowed as president to immediately “repeal” so-called “Obamacare” and Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. She styled the federal health care bill as a “playground of left-wing social engineering.”
Bachmann wrote of the need for federal tax reform, vetoing out-of-balanced federal budgets, pushing legislation to make English the country’s official language, doing away with the federal Departments of Education, Commerce and Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency, among other goals.
One question 6th District voters are left to ponder, assuming Bachmann’s presidential bid fails, is whether the congresswoman will seek another term in Congress.
Carleton College political science professor Steven Schier for one believes Bachmann will run for Congress again. What else will she do? he recently asked.
Minnesota Republican National Committee member and former State Auditor Pat Anderson believes Bachmann has until the South Carolina primary later this month to make up her mind about returning to Congress.
The new shape of the 6th District will not be known until redistricting plans emerge later this winter.
