New year predictions for old media community newspapers
In my meager attempt to follow in the footsteps of some of the more prominent and prolific industry blogs this time of year, this post is a list of my own predictions for the future of journalism, particularly the future of community newspapers like those here at ECM Publishers.
PREDICTION #1) Free distribution community weeklies will eventually begin charging a subscription rate for their print edition, effectively and significantly trimming print circulation down to the most loyal print readers. Everyone else will go to the web for their community news. (Which we of course hope will be OUR web sites).
Subscriptions won’t add all that much in terms of revenue, but will help us shave down costs in terms of distribution. We’ll spend less on paper and less on transportation. To succeed, our ad/sales folks will need to artfully roll online and print advertising together to re-incentivize advertising. Think about it, you pay for an ad with your community newspaper and you get a print ad, a banner on the website, a mention on the podcast, and a hip, eye-catching graphic ad on the news videos. Advertisers need to be sold on the idea that their ads will go “everywhere our news and information goes”, which will be/is greater than under the free distribution model.
And sure, Thisweek has a circulation of about 75,000 right now. That number could drop below, say, 8,000 if we charge. But ask yourselves how many of those 75,000 issues actually get picked up and read anyway? With both subscriptions and web analytics, we can offer advertisers unparalleled target marketing to their own communities.
When this will happen, I don’t know, but it’s a pretty safe bet that companies will wait until they are forced into this. (And I am telling you they eventually will be) I’d love it if ECM could figure it out before we face the doomsday scenario of do or die.
Charging for the print edition will be the community newspaper equivalent of the big newspapers going completely paperless, like the Kansas City Kansan did recently. Many smaller community print editions are still too popular as a news product, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t rethink our business model for that product. Sure we have loyal customers who like getting our print product, but as our prices increase and old revenue streams dry up, our customers must realize that their cute little free weekly community newspaper is no longer free. Prices go up on things, it’s understood. Some strange unspoken law says you can’t increase the price on free, but I say rubbish. The free distribution model has moved to the Internet. People understand this. After all, the only ones who are really married to a print edition are the ones pushing it like us. Take away the free print edition and we’ll find out real quick who can’t live without their print newspaper. (Hint: everyone can live without it, even Gramps, who swears up and down that he loves the paper and will never get on the “damned Inter-web thingy”). The free print edition business model no longer suits outfits like Thisweek Newspapers.
Oh, and don’t worry about our competition capturing the market because they decide to hold onto the free print distribution model longer than us. Have you seen the condition Sun newspapers is in? We won’t cause their financial turnaround with a move away from free distribution. Trust me.
PREDICTION #2) In addition to an online editor, community newspapers will hire a full-time “social media community manager” responsible for promoting, marketing and breaking news and news products like video, blogs and podcasts within online communities and in social networking sites. Community managers are already growing in popularity within the public relations sector. MinnPost.com has reported on the rise of community managers recently stating:
“For those leaders who realize that embarking on the use of social media without any experience is a fool’s errand, more and more companies are addressing the necessity of having an experienced person or team managing their online community or ecosystem and are creating and hiring a community manager who understands where people connect online, how to connect and converse with them, and how to do so in the right way.”
Based on that logic, it’s a no brainer for the newspaper industry to hop onboard the community manager bandwagon.
PREDICTION #3) Every reporter will be required to blog, hyperlink, take video, and podcast or they will find other work. The job demands it. It’s no longer an option. Community newspapers’ core product is information, not a “print edition” or its website or anything else. “Information” is the product, the packaging is increasingly diversified and only those journalists who master the mediums of modern information will survive as purveyors of it. Let’s face it, newsrooms are looking for ways to slash jobs or consolidate them. Why hire a photographer, a videographer, a web designer, a blogger, and a writer when you can now hire a person with all those skills in one hire? The more people with that kind of resume, the less work there will be for the strictly traditional newspaper reporter.
PREDICTION #4) Big breaking news stories will be broken more and more by citizens with cel phone cameras. The strength of community newspaper reporting is the thankless and grueling work of covering endless city council meetings, boring school board meetings, and the kinds of commonplace local crime that no one else has the time or money to cover. Sure, “Ned the pedestrian” will be the one credited with the shaky, amateur footage of the plane crash, but “Phil the reporter” gets paid to cover the police, city and school beat so residents know what’s really going on with their taxes, their teachers and public safety, day to day and month to month.
PREDICTION #5) Community newspaper companies will survive. They are necessary, not optional. If we get our act together and wrestle this new business model into submission, we’ll start to see the sun peaking through the clouds.
Jeff, your content never ceases to amaze. Very impressive words and ideas here. Thanks for that.
1. Have you seen the condition Sun newspapers is in?
No, I am unfamiliar with their financial status but I do notice that their proofreading skills have headed in the wrong direction. The most recent article which comes to mind is the puff piece on Apple Valley which is riddled with misspellings and grammatical error.
Aside from that, their content is fairly decent at times. No different than the other local papers doing their thing IMO.
2. The free print edition business model no longer suits outfits like Thisweek Newspapers.
No but your Internet facing design is very poor while your print edition is designed well. I guarantee that if you sat down with focus groups on your website UI, like you did with the newly redesigned print edition, you’d find that people find it awkward, slow, and backward. I realize I’m probably ahead of the curve there but man, Thisweek’s website is clunky and outdated. You have great content but it’s surrounded by clutter and difficult navigation which had recent changes for the sole purpose to increase pageviews and ad placements.
If you’re planning to make the move to 100% online distribution and aren’t planning to make PDFs of the print edition, I suggest that your team sits down with a design and branding firm to get you guys caught up in something other than pages and pages of poor layouts.
3. Community newspaper companies will survive. They are necessary, not optional. If we get our act together and wrestle this new business model into submission, we’ll start to see the sun peaking through the clouds.
You’re absolutely correct here. People are very interested in the local happenings in their areas that aren’t covered by the “big boys” who are slashing their budgets and thus entire sections (like the East Metro coverage from the Star Tribune) and giving less and less real-estate to the suburbs.
But instead of concerning yourself with “wrestling” the new business model, you really need to find a way to embrace and roll with the changes that are evolving at an ever quickening pace. The failures of traditional print media came about because they were unwilling to change immediately (or ever in many cases) and that sort of mentality is what’s going to keep the traditional outlets behind the curve.
Good luck Jeff and keep up the good blog posts. I’m loving them :)
Bill, thanks for the post. Yes, the I was referring to the Sun’s financial situation, not their content.
I like the suggestion about .pdfs of the print edition if we ever move to completely online or at least online with a subscription edition.
If I can indulge in some completely self-serving feedback for a moment, I’d love for you to expand on your criticism of Thisweeklive.com. (Feel free to email me directly with suggestions or post here.)
We’re quite proud of the redesign (eff. 4/1/08) so your comments hit a little hard. That being said, you’ve got my attention and my curiosity. What are the most annoying things about Thisweeklive.com (we already know about the problems with page loading times and are working on it…) In your opinion, what changes should we make to better showcase our content?
As for being behind the curve, I find navigating our newspaper company through the new media environment is kinda like trying to navigate a big tanker ship in the ocean. She makes only slow course corrections cause the weight of the operation won’t allow quick maneuvers. Still, there’s power in being a bigger ship.
If you have time, give a listen to this 2005 presentation on “The Changing Rules of Journalism.” http://multimedia.journalism.berkeley.edu/presentations/173/
Bob Cauthorn, an online reporter and editor, talks about the failures of modern news organizations and the changes they need to make. Even though he gave the talk in 05, it’s still very relevant.
I should really subscribe to the comments feed too so I know when stuff is posted :)
I’ll be sure to weigh in with my comments later both privately and publicly.